Unlevered Free Cash Flow: What Goes in It, and Why It Matters



Capex matters more to the stock market than the consumer

JetBlue ribbon cuttingA ribbon cutting ceremony to celebrate JetBlue Airways move to historic Hangar 8 at Logan International Airport in Boston AP/Aynsley Floyd When it comes to boosting stock prices, few things are more important than the willingness of companies to invest in themselves.

With that in mind, bullish investors will be pleased to know that corporate capital expenditure is picking up.

Non-residential fixed investment — spending on things like machinery, factories, and commercial real estate — is up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, according to Strategas Research Partners.

And while much has been made about the importance of consumer spending in the economy, Strategas argues that it's less important than capex when it comes to share prices.

Consumer staples and discretionary companies account for 21.6% of the market cap of the Standard &Poor's500.Industrialandtechnologycompanies,whichwouldbethebiggestbeneficiariesofmorebusinessspending,makeupaboutone-thirdoftheS&P500,sothey'llplayalargerroleinpushingtheindexhigher.

"Whiletheconsumer,measuredineconomicterms,maybedoingOK,indexgainswillbefarmorereliantoninvestment,"NicholasBohnsack,co-founderandheadofquantitativeresearchatStrategas,wroteinarecentnote.

Bohnsacknotesthatcapexforindustrials,inparticular,hasroomtoexpand.Overthelastdecadeorso,companiesintheindustryhavespentlessoninternalinvestmentsthantheydidovertheprevious10years.

Strategas Research Partners

The possibility for higher capex in industrials may be the catalyst the sector needs to maintain the torrid gains it's seen since the US presidential election.

The group surged as much as 14% in the four months after the election on expectations that the trillion of infrastructure spending proposed by President Donald Trump would boost bottom lines. But it's since struggled to break higher amid skepticism that Trump will be able to implement his suggested policies any time soon, if at all.

As for the tech sector, the potential for future gains is driven as much by companies in other industries sinking money into technological advancement as it is by capex spending within the sector. A large part of that will be driven by bigger paychecks for US workers, according to Wells Fargo Funds chief equity strategist John Manley.






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Date: 11.12.2018, 08:11 / Views: 94155